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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from NATO member states operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he added.